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印度主要空气污染源造成的疾病负担Burden of Disease Attributable to  Major Air Pollution Sources in India in 2018 印度主要空气污染源造成的疾病负担Burden of Disease Attributable to  Major Air Pollution Sources in India in 2018

印度主要空气污染源造成的疾病负担Burden of Disease Attributable to Major Air Pollution Sources in India in 2018

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  • 更新时间:2021-09-09
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本研究增加的内容•本报告为印度空气污染的主要来源提供了可归因于环境和预测负担的第一综合评估。2015年,来自多个主要来源的颗粒物(PM)的空气污染约为1.0百万人死亡,约占死亡人数的106%。燃烧源是主要的贡献者:居民生物污染是印度人负担的重要因素。居民生物量燃烧占267700。死亡人数,占PM2.5死亡人数的近25%,成为2015年与死亡率相关的最重要的单一人为来源。这些负荷估计数不包括因室内暴露于生物质燃烧而产生的相当大的额外负荷。煤的燃烧和燃烧也会对疾病的负担造成副作用。在2015年,煤炭燃烧造成169300人死亡(15.5%)。农业废弃物的露天焚烧造成了66200人(6.1%)的PM2.5死亡。运输、配送柴油和砖瓦生产重要贡献者TOPM2.5-可归因的疾病负担。2015年,交通运输造成23100人死亡,分布式柴油造成20400人死亡,砖块生产造成24100人死亡。•如果不采取行动,到2050年,人口暴露量将增加40%以上。评估了三种不同的能源效率和空气污染控制途径(情景)。在很少采取额外行动的参考情景(REF)中,暴露量从2015年的74 g/m3增加到2050年的106 g/m3。在雄心勃勃的S2情景下,风险敞口水平保持在接近2015年的水平。只有在雄心勃勃的S3情景中设想的最积极的减少情况下,预计暴露量才会以主要方式减少——从2015年到2050年减少近35%,达到约48 g/m3。•如果没有行动,所有来源的疾病的未来负担都将实质性增长2050。随着人口的老龄化和增长,使更多的人容易受到空气污染的影响,尽管预计在S2和S3情景中暴露量会减少,但疾病负担预计在未来会增加。与2015年近110万人死亡相比,环境PM2.5造成的死亡预计将上升至360万人,无需采取行动。•侵略性行为可避免近120万人的疾病;所有主要部门都需要在污染环境中实现教育,以减少污染。印度政府已经开始采取行动改善空气质量。该分析表明,与REF情景相比,S3情景下的积极行动在2050年可以避免近120万人死亡。这对于减少住宅生物质燃烧、燃煤和与人类活动有关的粉尘暴露的行动尤其如此。 这个

What This Study Adds •ThisreportprovidesthefirstcomprehensiveassessmentofthecurrentandpredictedburdensofdiseaseattributabletomajorsourcesofairpollutioninIndia. •In2015,particulatematter(PM)airpollutionfromseveralmajorsourceswasresponsibleforapproximately1.1milliondeaths,or10.6%ofthetotalnumberofdeathsinIndia.Combustion sources are among the leading contributors: ResidentialbiomassburningisthelargestindividualcontributortotheburdenofdiseaseinIndia.Residential biomass burning was responsible for 267,700 deaths, or nearly 25% of the deaths attributable to PM2.5, making it the most important single anthropogenic source related to mortality in 2015. These burden estimates do not include the considerable additional burden from indoor exposure to biomass burning. Coalcombustionandopenburningalsocontributesubstantiallytodiseaseburden. Coal combustion, roughly evenly split between industrial sources and thermal power plants, was responsible for 169,300 deaths (15.5%) in 2015. The open burning of agricultural residue was responsible for 66,200 (6.1%) PM2.5-attributable deaths. Transport,distributeddiesel,andbrickproductionarealsoimportantcontributorstoPM2.5-attributablediseaseburden. In 2015, transportation contributed 23,100 deaths, distributed diesel contributed 20,400 deaths, and brick production contributed 24,100 deaths. •Ifnoactionistaken,populationexposurestoPM2.5arelikelytoincreasebymorethan40%by2050.Three different energy efficiency and air pollution control pathways (scenarios) were evaluated. In the reference scenario (REF), in which little additional action is taken, exposures increase from 74 g/m3 in 2015 to 106 g/m3 in 2050. Exposure levels are kept close to 2015 levels under an ambitious S2 scenario. Only under the most active reductions envisioned in the aspirational S3 scenario are exposures projected to be reduced in a major way — by nearly 35% from 2015 to 2050, reaching about 48 g/m3. •Ifnoactionistaken,thefutureburdenofdiseasefromallsourceswillgrowsubstantiallyby2050. The burden of disease is expected to grow in the future, as the population ages and grows and leaves more people susceptible to air pollution, despite the projected exposure decreases in the S2 and S3 scenarios. Compared with nearly 1.1 million deaths in 2015, deaths attributable to ambient PM2.5 are projected to rise to 3.6 million with no action. •Aggressiveactioncouldavoidnearly1.2milliondeaths;allmajorsectorswillneedtoachievereductionsinairpollutiontoreducediseaseburden. The Indian government has begun taking actions to improve air quality. This analysis demonstrates that aggressive actions under the S3 scenario could avoid nearly 1.2 million deaths in 2050 compared with the REF scenario. That will be especially true for actions to reduce exposure from residential biomass combustion, coal burning, and dusts related to human activities. 

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