澳大利亚能源资源评估Australian Energy Resource Assessment

•这是对2010年发布的澳大利亚能源资源第一次国家评估的更新。这个评估提供了澳大利亚已查明的和潜在的能源资源的快照，从化石燃料和铀到并回顾了可能影响澳大利亚未来能源使用的因素。•澳大利亚拥有丰富多样的能源资源。自2010年以来，预计除石油外，不可再生能源资源有所增加。澳大利亚继续拥有世界上最大的经济铀资源，第四大煤炭（黑色和棕色）资源，以及常规和非常规天然气资源。这一全球重要的资源基础能够满足在接下来的几年里，国内和增加的煤炭和天然气出口需求，以及铀出口几十年。通过新的发现，有很好的潜力进一步扩大资源基础。确定原油、凝析油和液化石油气资源更加有限，澳大利亚也越来越运输燃料依赖进口。•澳大利亚拥有丰富多样的可再生能源资源（风能、太阳能、地热能、水力、波浪能、潮汐能，生物能源）。水能资源已经基本开发完毕。2010年以来，风能和太阳能资源使用量已经强劲增长，而且还在继续增长。地热和海洋能源资源仍大量存在未开发。可再生能源可以大大增加澳大利亚未来的能源供应。•澳大利亚在可再生能源目标和倡议，如澳大利亚可再生能源署。•技术开发和商业化，以提高能源开采和使用效率，以及降低行业的排放强度，将在向低排放经济转型中发挥关键作用。•澳大利亚的能源需求预计将在未来几十年内增长；然而，增长率是预计会放缓。这种放缓的部分原因是预期的能源效率提高和更高的能源价格。预计主要燃料混合料将发生变化。尽管煤炭有望继续主导澳大利亚

发电，向低排放燃料的转变预计将导致天然气和可再生能源的增加能源，特别是风能和太阳能。•澳大利亚的能源基础设施集中在能源消耗最高和主要化石能源的地区燃料能源资源所在地。更多地利用新能源，特别是可再生能源，将需要更灵活和分散的电网。

• This is an update to the first national assessment of Australia’s energy resources released in 2010. This assessment  provides a snapshot of Australia’s identified and potential energy resources—ranging from fossil fuels and uranium to  renewables—and reviews the factors likely to influence the future use of Australia’s energy resources. • Australia has an abundance and diversity of energy resources. Since 2010, the estimated total demonstrated  non-renewable energy resources, with the exception of oil, has increased. Australia continues to have the world’s  largest economic uranium resources, the fourth largest coal (black and brown) resources, and substantial  conventional and unconventional gas resources. This globally significant resource base is capable of meeting  both domestic and increased export demand for coal and gas, and uranium exports, during the next several  decades. There is good potential for further growth of the resource base through new discoveries. Identified  resources of crude oil, condensate and liquefied petroleum gas are more limited, and Australia is increasingly  reliant on imports for transport fuels.  • Australia has a rich diversity of renewable energy resources (wind, solar, geothermal, hydro, wave, tidal,  bioenergy). Hydro energy resources are already mostly developed. Since 2010, wind and solar energy resources  use has grown strongly, and is continuing to do so. Geothermal and ocean energy resources remain largely  undeveloped. Renewable energy resources could contribute significantly more to Australia’s future energy supply.  • Australia’s transformation to lower emissions energy sources has commenced under the influence of the  renewable energy target and initiatives such as the Australian Renewable Energy Agency. • Technology development and commercialisation to improve efficiency in the extraction and use of energy, and to  reduce the emissions intensity of the sector, will play a critical role in the transition to a lower emissions economy.  • Australia’s energy demand is expected to rise during the next few decades; however, the rate of growth is  expected to slow. This slowing is partly due to expected energy efficiency improvements and higher energy  prices. The primary fuel mix is expected to change. Although coal is expected to continue to dominate Australia’s  electricity generation, a shift to lower emissions fuels is expected to result in increases in gas and renewable  energy—particularly wind and solar. • Australia’s energy infrastructure is concentrated in areas where energy consumption is highest and major fossil  fuel energy resources are located. Greater use of new energy resources, particularly renewable energy sources,  will require more flexible and decentralised electricity grids.