Stranded Costs of China's Coal-fired Power Plants: Investment Risks and Policy Implications中国燃煤

The meeting was divided into three themes: the risks to investors of stranded coal assets, the political and economic implications of stranded coal assets, and efficient, low-carbon electricity market reform.Around each topic, the university of Oxford and the north China university of electric power have published research results. Specifically, the following research findings are:Failure to find these stranded assets in time will have an impact on investors' expected returns, damage the ability of power plants to repay their huge debts, and ultimately allow taxpayers and electricity users to absorb the stranded costs.• the finances of China's top 50 coal-fired power groups have generally deteriorated.The industry suffers from serious losses of assets and declining profit margins. Meanwhile, it is faced with high financial risks and weakened solvency.• it is not only tangible assets (e.g., units, equipment, coal mines) that are stranded, but also related financial assets (e.g., stocks, debt, derivatives), natural assets (e.g., water reserves), and labor assets.• the provinces with the largest potential stranded assets in the five-year scenario are Inner Mongolia, shanxi, xinjiang, shanxi, guizhou and jiangsu, according to the study.The three old industrial zones in the North-East have a modest amount of stranded coal and power assets relative to the whole of China.• it is estimated that in 2020, the surplus scale of coal power in jilin province will be between 9 million kw and 16.07 million kw, and the stranded assets will be between 46.2 billion yuan and 99.2 billion yuan;At the company level, guodian group's stranded unit is the largest, expected to be as high as 23.092 billion yuan.At the same time, the study puts forward the main measures for the power sector to reduce overcapacity and smooth the risk management of stranded assets, including strict control over increment, stock reduction, stock transformation, market reform, green finance, carbon emission quota price and trading, ownership structure and governance, etc.It is worth noting that the government will give a certain transition period or bring the operation of coal power plants out of the market into a controlled operation state.The usual international practice is that governments do not subsidise the investment needed to meet the new standards or pay compensation for the closure of existing power plants.However, governments sometimes agree to compensate plant owners for "loss of interest" or to finance investments to meet new environmental standards.Due to the importance and urgency of coal stranding, domestic government, enterprises, finance and academia have paid great attention to it.The success of this seminar proves this point.In the next step, we will actively promote the research results of the project, and timely submit the research report to the government and relevant leaders.At the same time, the power roundtable platform will continue to organize and hold symposiums on power reform and sustainable development, invite relevant parties to have dialogues and exchanges, and make Suggestions for the low-carbon transformation of China's power industry.

本次会议分为三个主题展开，暨搁浅煤电资产对投资人的风险、搁浅煤电资产 的政治经济含义，以及高效、低碳的电力市场改革。围绕每个主题，牛津大学和华 北电力大学都发布了研究成果，具体来看，有以下几点研究发现： • 中国煤电面临严重的搁浅风险，据估计搁浅资产规模将高达 30860-72010 亿元，相当于 2015 年 GDP 的 4.1%-9.5%。如不能及时发现这些搁浅资产，将影 响投资人的预期收益、损害电厂偿还巨额负债的能力，并最终由纳税人和电力用 户消化这些搁浅成本。 • 中国排名前 50 的燃煤发电集团的财务状况普遍恶化。行业资产亏损严重， 利润率下降，同时面临着很高的财务风险、偿债能力减弱。 • 煤电资产被搁浅的不仅是有形资产（如机组、设备、煤矿），相关的金融资 产（如股票，债务，衍生产品）、自然资产（如水资源储量）、劳动力资产也面 临同样风险。 • 研究结果显示，五年情景中，搁浅资产潜在规模最大的的省份是：内蒙古、 山西、新疆、山西、贵州和江苏。东北三省老工业区相对整个中国水平而言，拥 有中等规模的煤电搁浅资产。• 预计 2020 年，吉林省煤电过剩规模在 900 万千瓦到 1607 万千瓦之间，被 搁浅的资产规模在 462 亿元到 992 亿元之间；在公司层面，国电集团的搁浅机组 规模最高，预计将高达 230.92 亿元。 同时，研究提出了电力部门化解没电产能过剩、平滑管理搁浅资产风险的主要措 施有严控增量、削减存量、存量改造、市场改革、绿色金融、碳排放配额价格和 交易和所有权结构和治理等等。 值得关注的是，对于退出市场的煤电厂，政府会给予一定的过渡期或将其运营纳入 管控操作状态。国际上通常的做法是，政府不会补贴为达到新标准所需的投资，也 不需要对现有电厂的关闭支付赔偿。然而，政府有时也会同意补偿电厂拥有者的 “利益损失”，或对于满足新的环境标准的投资给予经济上的资助。 由于煤炭搁浅问题的重要性和紧迫性，国内政府、企业、金融和学术界都给予 了高度重视和关注。本次研讨会的成功召开，更是证明了这一点。下一步，我们将 积极推广项目研究成果，并适时的将研究报告呈交给与政府和各相关方领导。同时， 电力圆桌平台将继续围绕电力改革和可持续发展，组织和举办专题讨论会，邀请相 关方进行对话和交流，为中国电力低碳转型建言献策。