东盟能源方程ASEAN’S ENERGY EQUATION

提供负担得起、可靠和可持续的电力在提高生活水平和释放经济潜力方面发挥着核心作用。在未来几年里，很少有地方会比组成东南亚国家联盟（东盟）的10个国家1更为真实。该区域人口超过6.29亿，继续经历经济高速增长、人口变化和工业发展。在未来五到十年内，通过2015年建立东盟经济共同体，实现更大的区域一体化和结构改革，将使经济增长每年提高6%以上。事实上，2015年东盟经济规模为24万亿美元，居世界第六位，亚洲第三位。到2050年，麦肯锡预计该地区将成为第四大经济体3。根据国际能源署（IEA）的数据，在过去25年中，东盟的能源需求增长了150%以上。随着人口统计数据的不断变化和该地区经济规模增长两倍以上，国际能源机构预测东盟的能源需求将增长80%，达到略高于10.7亿吨石油当量（Mtoe），相当于日本目前能源总需求的三倍。这与东盟能源中心官方出版物《第四次东盟能源展望》（AEO4）的调查结果一致，该出版物于2015年10月在马来西亚吉隆坡举行的第33届东盟能源部长会议（AMEM）上发布。这些人口和经济趋势已导致东盟能源部门出现拐点。这将不可避免地带来双重挑战，既要满足能源需求，又要努力控制温室气体排放和其他潜在的环境影响。因此，东盟必须确定最可持续的增长方式。对能源的巨大需求为东盟带来了挑战和机遇，因为该地区各国政府正在努力实现平衡社会、经济和环境需求的能源组合。东盟已经证明对这些挑战作出了反应，最近通过交付第四系列东盟能源蓝图：东盟能源合作行动计划（APAEC）2016-2025第1阶段：2016-2020就证明了这一点。在前一计划成果的基础上，亚太经合组织2016-2025年的主题是“加强东盟的能源连通性和市场一体化，以实现所有人的能源安全、可获得性、可承受性和可持续性”。更新后的蓝图将继续侧重于七个方案领域，其中“煤炭和洁净煤技术”（CCT）被确定为关键战略优先事项之一。CCT与可再生电力和能源效率并驾齐驱，表明了煤炭对东盟当前和未来的重要性。在过去的15年中，煤炭推动了该地区的发展，其年平均增长率为8.4%。区域能源路线图表明，煤炭需求在长期内（至少25年）不会下降。国际能源机构预测，到2020年，煤炭将取代天然气成为主要的燃料供应电力，并在2040年前承担50%的发电量（从目前的32%）7。有一种区域性的理解是，不断增加的煤炭使用将需要一种低排放技术途径，平衡安全、经济发展和环境可持续性的能源三重困境。为了支持向CCT部署过渡，东盟将需要国际金融、技术等多种支持来加快部署。这种发展支持完全符合在《巴黎协定》和联合国可持续发展目标之前提交的国家确定的捐款。东盟的能源方程式——低排放煤炭在推动可持续能源未来中的作用，为CCT在APAEC 2016-2025中确定的能源安全和可持续发展机会提供了全面分析。报告的见解为“行动呼吁”提供了框架，详情见结论。

The delivery of affordable, reliable and sustainable  electricity plays a central role in improving living standards  and unlocking economic potential. Over the coming  years, few places will this be more true than in the ten  countries1 that make-up the Association of Southeast  Asian Nations (ASEAN).  The region has a population of more than 629 million  people and continues to experience high economic growth,  demographic changes and industrial development. Over  the next five to ten years, greater regional integration and  structural reforms realised through the establishment of the  ASEAN Economic Community in 2015 will bolster growth by  over 6% per annum. Indeed, at US$ 2.4trillion, the ASEAN  economy in 2015 was the sixth largest in the world or the  third largest in Asia2. By 2050, McKinsey projects the region  to rank as the fourth-largest economy3.  Over the past 25 years, according to the International Energy  Agency (IEA), ASEAN energy demand has increased by  over 150%4. As demographics continue to change and the  region’s economy more than triples in size, the IEA forecasts  ASEAN’s energy demand to increase by 80% to just over  1070 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), comparable  to three times Japan’s current total energy demand. This  echoed the findings from the official ASEAN publication, by  the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), the 4th ASEAN Energy  Outlook (AEO4) which was released during the 33rd ASEAN  Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM), October 2015 in Kuala  Lumpur, Malaysia5. These demographic and economic trends  have led the ASEAN energy sector to an inflection point.  This inevitably will create dual challenges of meeting energy  demand while also working to rein in greenhouse gas (GHG)  emissions and other potential environmental impacts. Thus, it  is critical for ASEAN to determine the most sustainable way  to fuel the growth. Voracious demand for energy presents challenges and  opportunities for ASEAN as the region’s governments seek  to deliver an energy mix that balances social, economic and  environmental imperatives. ASEAN has proven responsive to the challenges, as recently  demonstrated through the delivery of the fourth series of  ASEAN energy blueprint: ASEAN plan of Action for Energy  Cooperation (APAEC) 2016-2025 Phase 1: 2016-2020.  Building on the achievements of the previous plan, the  APAEC 2016-2025 is founded on the theme of ‘Enhancing  Energy Connectivity and Market Integration in ASEAN to  Achieve Energy Security, Accessibility, Affordability and  Sustainability for All’6. The updated blueprint will continue  to focus on seven programme areas, with ‘Coal and Clean  Coal Technology’ (CCT) identified as one of the key  strategic priorities.  The equal prominence that CCT receives alongside renewable  electricity and energy efficiency is indicative of the current  and forecast importance of coal for ASEAN. Over the last  decade and half, coal has fuelled the region’s development  as reflected in its 8.4% annual average growth rate. Regional  energy roadmaps indicate that coal demand will not decline in  the long-term (minimum 25 years). The IEA forecasts coal to  overtake gas as the primary fuel supplying electricity by 2020  and to be responsible for 50% of electricity generation by  2040 (from 32% today)7.  There is a regional understanding that rising use of coal  will necessitate a low emission technology pathway which  balances the energy trilemma of security, economic  development and environmental sustainability. In order to  support the transition toward CCT deployment, ASEAN will  require international financial, technological and other kinds  of support to accelerate deployment. Such development  support is fully in-line with Nationally Determined  Contributions (NDCs) submitted in the lead up to the ‘Paris  Agreement’ and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.  ASEAN’s Energy Equation – the role of low emission  coal in driving a sustainable energy future provides  a comprehensive analysis for the energy security and  sustainable development opportunities that CCT promotes  as identified in APAEC 2016-2025. The report’s insights  provide the framework for the ‘Call to Action’ as detailed in  the conclusion.