俄中能源关系:与龙下棋Energy Relations between Russia and China: Playing Chess with the Dragon
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俄罗斯与中国的关系长期动荡,既有亲密的友谊,也有赤裸裸的敌意,特别是在苏联时期。此时,俄罗斯工会在一个合作伙伴关系中扮演着“老大哥”的角色,它是新技术和业务能力的提供者。然而,自1991年以来,两国关系越来越建立在能源的基础上,其明显的逻辑是,中国是世界上增长最快的经济体,截至2009年,中国是世界上最大的能源消费国,而俄罗斯是世界上最大的碳氢化合物(石油,295)尽管俄国一直渴望避免被视为一个简单的能源生产商和供应者,而中国却不愿意过分依赖于有争议的北方大国,发展紧密的能源是不可避免的。尽管西方的愤世嫉俗无疑已经发生。正如所有涉及能源进出口的联系一样,相互依赖的因素是显而易见的。俄罗斯需要从石油、天然气和煤炭的销售中获得收入,并将中国和更广泛的亚洲视为一个不断扩大的市场,可以从更成熟、停滞不前的西方市场提供多样化。另一方面,中国的能源需求在过去的12年里翻了一番,远远超过了国内生产,并创造了不断增长的需求,为工业发展提供了动力。俄罗斯巨大的资源提供了一个明显的来源,带来了来自中东地区和美国舰队所能创造的依赖地区的多样性。然而,两国关系的性质并不平等和对立,自2014年美国和欧盟制裁俄罗斯有能力获得技术和金融支持以来,越来越多的人认为中国现在是这一合作的主导力量。能源合作在很大程度上是由中国能源需求的时机决定的,这一点突显了这种意识。在中国成为石油净进口国后不久,东西伯利亚的石油出口就开始了,并且随着需求的不断增长和供应来源多样化的愿望而增加。煤炭出口也有类似的趋势,从中国成为净进口国开始,随着煤炭产量的增加和现在的下降,煤炭出口量急剧上升。气体的例子也很有趣。多年来,天然气一直是中国能源结构的一小部分。然而,到2014年,由于能源消费总量不断上升,以及人们希望燃烧更多环保燃料,需求迅速增长的预期促使人们寻求多元化的进口方向,俄罗斯作为北方的载体发挥了作用。因此,签署了西伯利亚电力协议,开始了第二条西线(阿尔泰)的谈判。然而,由于中国经济增长放缓,天然气需求量下降,因此俄罗斯天然气出口计划的进展放缓。
Russia’s relations with China have been long and volatile, alternating between close friendship and outrighthostility, especiallyintheSovietera.AtthattimetheSovietUniontook the roleof“BigBrother” in a partnership where it was the provider of new technologies and operational competence. Since 1991, though, the relationship has increasingly been founded on energy, based on the obvious logic that China has been the world’s fastest growing economy and, as of 2009, the world’s largest energy consumer,whileRussia is the world’s largestproducer of hydrocarbons (oil,gas andcoal).295 Although Russia has always been eager to avoid being seen as a simple energy producer and supplier to its increasingly wealthyeastern neighbour, and China has been reluctant to become overlydependent on apoliticallycontentious northern power, thedevelopmentof close energyties has been inevitable, and despite western cynicism has undoubtedly occurred. As with all connections involving the export and import of energy, the elements of mutual dependency areclear. Russia needs to generate revenuefrom sales of oil, gas andcoal andsees China, andmore broadly Asia, as an expanding market which can offer diversification from the more mature, and stagnant, western markets. On the other hand, Chinese energy demand has doubled over the past 12 years,morethanoutstrippingindigenousproductionandcreatingincreasingdemandforimportstofuel industrial expansion. Russia’s vast resources offer one obvious source, bringing diversity both from a relianceontheMiddle East andfrom dependenceonsealanes thatcanbethreatened bytheUSfleet. However, the nature of the relationship is not equal and opposite, and since 2014, when US and EU sanctionslimitedRussia’sabilitytoaccesstechnologyandfinanceintheoilsector,theincreasingsense has been that China is now the dominant force in this cooperation. This sense is underlined by the fact that energy co-operation has largely been driven by the timing of China’s energy needs. Oil exports from East Siberia commenced shortly after China became a net oil importer and have increased in step with its rising requirement and its desire to diversify its sources of supply. Coal exports have followed a similar trend, starting when China became a net importer, rising sharplyasChina’sneedsincreasedandnowdecliningasChinastartstoshiftitsenergyeconomyaway from coal. The example of gas is also interesting. For many years, gas has been a minor part of the Chinese energy mix. However, by 2014 expectations of a rapid increase in demand, driven by a combination of rising overall energy consumption and a desire to burn more environmentally friendly fuels, had catalysed a search for a diversified compass of imports, with Russia playing its part as the northern vector. As aresult, thePower of Siberiadeal was signedandnegotiations beganonasecond westernroute(Altai).However,sincethenChineseeconomicgrowthhasslowed,gasdemandforecasts have been reduced and consequently progress on Russian gas export plans has slowed.-
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