Stranded assets and coal-fired power generation in China: Environmental risk exposure analysis搁浅资产与

We examined the environmental risks associated with existing and planned new coal power plants of China's top 50 coal power groups, which together account for 89 per cent of the country's total installed capacity.We measured the exposure of each plant to risk assumptions at 7 regional levels and 12 country levels.This asset-level analysis is then aggregated to the parent company level to help specific investors make investment decisions including risk management, risk screening, voting, participation and withdrawal.We also target China's five major power generation groups (huaneng international, datangjiGroup, guodian group, huadian group, the state power investment group) face the environment related risks and potential stranded risk carried out in-depthCase studies.We looked at the financial structure and market value of Chinese power generation companies historically.This helps determine the performance, stability, and asset health of the sample company, as well as its ability to raise funds in the future, as investors seek such information to identify investmentsThe expected rate of return of capital.Faced with the various risk factors revealed in this report, the stranded assets generated by the financially sound power companies are also more accommodatingEasy to adapt.If the sample company is under heavy financial pressure, investors will consider the company to be an industry non-investment grade and whether to invest in it or notBe hesitant to invest, or demand a higher return on your investment.In promoting low-carbon investment in China, capital entry is crucial.We found that the financial situation of the top 50 Chinese coal and power companies generally deteriorated.First, between 2008 and 2015, the industry capitalThe loss reached 13.8 billion yuan.Second, Chinese power companies are highly dependent on short-term debt (current liabilities) if the marketThe situation deteriorates rapidly, which may lead to additional financial risk and bankruptcy risk.Third, over the years, profit margins have continued to decline since 1995That fell from 23% a year earlier to 9% in 2015.Fourth, sample companies have been trying to increase their financial leverage, resulting in higherFinancial risk.Fifth, Chinese coal-fired power companies typically have very low cash reserves, reducing their ability to use cash or cash equivalents to repay debtForce.Sixth, debt as a share of income is growing, extending the time it takes to repay debt.In order to measure the potential stranded scale of China's coal-fired power assets and the upper limit of this scale, we use four scenarios to illustrateIn each scenario, assume that all existing and planned new coal plants are completely grounded in 5, 10, 15, and 20 years, respectively.Considering the wholeThe rate of change in the global energy system, these scenarios are set over the right time span.As the tipping point approaches, the damage caused by stranded assetsIt seems to be accelerating, but the power sector's desire to keep new coal-fired power assets relatively static and "safe" runs counter to what we saw happening in the G20.These four scenarios reflect the speed and scale at which environment-related risks, as explained in this report, have a material impact.It is important to stress that these scenarios highlight the biggest potential impact of stranded assets on China's power sector and estimate the value of stranded assetsIt could be as high as 30,866-7,201 billion yuan ($449 - $1,047 billion), equivalent to 4.1% to 9.5% of China's GDP in 2015.In view of theAt this scale, financial regulators should carefully examine which parts of the Chinese financial system are more or less exposed to these risks and consider measures to mitigate them.Given rising overcapacity, competition from renewable sources, reductions in carbon emission quotas and declining demand for electricity, the failure to identify the risk of asset stranding-off for China's existing and approved coal-fired power plants could have serious consequences.Stranded assets will be affectedInvestors' expected returns hurt the plants' ability to repay their huge debts, and ultimately leave taxpayers and electricity users to absorb themAssets.

我们研究了中国排名前 50 的煤电集团（合计装机容量占全国煤电总装机容量的 89%）旗下的现役 和计划新建煤电所面临的环境相关风险。我们测算了每个电厂在 7 个区域层面和 12 个国家层面风险假 设的暴露程度。这种资产层面的分析随后会汇总到母公司层面，来帮助特定的投资者制定包括风险管 理、风险筛选、表决、参与和撤资在内的投资决策。我们也针对中国五大发电集团（华能国际，大唐集 团，国电集团，华电集团，国家电力投资集团）所面临的环境相关风险和潜在的搁浅风险进行了深入的 案例研究。 我们研究了中国各发电公司历来的财务结构和市场价值。这样做有助于确定样本公司的业绩表现、 稳定性和资产健康状况，也为公司未来的融资能力提供了参考，同时投资者也在寻求此类信息以确定投 资的预期回报率。面对本报告所揭示的各种风险因素产生的搁浅资产，财务状况良好的电力企业也更容 易适应。如果样本公司背负着沉重的财务压力，投资者将会认为该公司属于行业非投资级别并在是否投 资上犹豫不决，或者会要求更高的投资回报率。在促进中国低碳转型投资方面，资本的进入至关重要。 我们发现排名前 50 的中国煤电企业的财务状况普遍恶化。首先，2008 到 2015 年期间，该行业资 产亏损达到了 138 亿人民币。其次，中国电力企业对短期债务（流动负债）有很大的依赖性，如果市场 状况迅速恶化，可能导致额外的财务风险和破产风险。第三，多年以来，利润率在持续下降，从 1995 年的 23%降到了 2015 年的 9%。第四，样本公司一直在努力增加他们的财务杠杆，从而导致了更高的 财务风险。第五，中国煤电企业的现金储备通常很低，削弱了他们使用现金或现金等价物偿还债务的能 力。第六，债务占收入的比重越来越大，延长了偿还债务的时间。 为了衡量中国煤电资产潜在的搁浅规模和这一规模的上限，我们使用了四个情景进行说明，在这四 个情景中，假设所有现役和计划新建煤电厂分别在 5 年、10 年、15 年和 20 年后被完全搁浅。考虑到全 球能源系统的变化速度，这些情景设定的时间跨度非常合适。随着临界点的来临，搁浅资产带来的破坏 似乎正在加速，但电力部门意图保持新建煤电资产的相对静态和“安全”的想法，与我们看到的 20 国 集团（G20）实际发生的情况是背道而驰的。 这四种情景反映了本报告所解释的环境相关风险产生实质性作用的速度和规模。需要着重强调的 是，这些情景突出了煤电搁浅资产给中国电力部门造成的最大潜在影响，估计煤电搁浅资产的价值规模 可能高达 30,860–72,010 亿元（4,490-10,470 亿美元），相当于 2015 年中国 GDP 的 4.1%–9.5%。鉴于 这样的规模，金融监管机构应该审慎地考查中国金融系统中哪些部分或多或少地暴露在这些风险下，并 考虑采取相关措施来减轻这种风险。 鉴于产能日益过剩、可再生能源的竞争、碳排放配额的减少、电力需求的下滑，如不能及时发现中 国现役和已批准新建的煤电厂所面临的资产搁浅风险，可能会造成严重的后果。煤电搁浅资产将会影响 投资者的预期收益，损害电厂偿还巨额负债的能力，并最终会导致让纳税人和电力用户去消化这些搁浅 资产。